IT Job Market and US National Employment Data
IT job market prospects are tied to the US national employment data -- Janco predicts that over 89,000 net new IT jobs will be created in 2019
IT Job Market and US National Employment Data - On a monthly basis - typically on the first Friday of the month - Janco publishes an analysis of the IT Job Market utilizing the BLS labor data and its proprietary data. See the latest press clipping go to Janco's Press Clippings and eJobDescription.com.
The salary survey is updated twice a year; once in January and then again in July. Janco and eJobDescription.com not only look at base salaries, they also report on total compensation and hiring trends for IT professionals.
You can get a free copy of the full survey if you provide 10 valid data points and use a corporate e-mail address. Free e-mail accounts like gmail or yahoo do not qualify as we have no way to verify the accuracy of the data provided.
IT Job Market growth was greater in 2018 by 45,900 net new jobs than in 2017
104,600 new new IT Jobs were added in 2018 versus 58,700 in 2017. That dramatic increase is one of the primary reasons that total compensation has risen for most IT professionals.
With the existing business climate in the U.S., we forecast that as total of approximately over 89,000 new IT jobs will be created in calendar year 2019.
The rate of hiring is still high for IT Pros. However, the change in that rate of increase shows that many IT organizations are absorbing the individuals hired and are not increasing the the number of new hires. They are focusing on the integration the new hires into their organizations..
When Final 2018 number of IT jobs is compared with 2017 there were 45,900 more new IT jobs created in 2018 than 2017. The turnaround in the economy was the primary driver, as companies were significantly more bullish with the tax cuts and fewer regulations.
See IT Job Families
Hiring Plans for IT Professionals
Many CIOs are beginning to be concerned about the economy. With the recent moves in the Stock Market and the slowing of China's economy there is a possibility that hiring may slow for IT professionals. The hiring picture is much more optimistic for IT Pros.
Based on Janco's interviews and survey data the following positions are in high demand.
Approximately 85,000 undergraduate degrees are issued for majors in Information Technology. Read on about Career Opportunities
U.S. Department of Labor National Employment Report
IT job market size increased in February with 5,000 new jobs and 71,600 jobs added in the last 12 months.
The BLS reclassified jobs that are in the Telecommunication to Computer Systems Design and related services which is why the individual classifications show a large change last year.
In interviews with both CIOs and HR professionals since the election, Janco has found CIOs to be more optimistic about the probability of increased IT spending and hiring. The data on the number of IT jobs created in the prior two months was increased by the BLS. As the year begins, 13,000 fewer jobs were created in 2019 than 2018. That along with the downward adjustment by the BLS in the total number of IT job created in 2018 causes some concern for IT Professionals' job opportunities.
CIOs say short term hiring and long term prospects are improving
Job growth in the IT job market growth increased again in November.
The three month moving average for IT job market growth trend for IT Professionals is up slightly. That metric is the change rate in increase and/or decrease in the total number of new hires. What it means is that CIO and HR recruiters are continuing to hire at a rate that is higher than in prior months. When that metric falls below zero then hiring demand will fall back to previous levels.
Janco's CIO Hiring Plan Forecast, for the time being, remain high. Many IT organizations still have open requisitions for IT pros that they are not able to fill because of the lack of good candidates. The number of positions filled at the staff level in prior months was high and IT departments are focusing in on absorbing new IT pros that were hired and are adding as many new positions in the short term.
IT Job Market Employment Trends
The IT job market grew by 5,000 jobs last month. Over the past 12 months 71,600 IT jobs were created according to the latest BLS data. Telecommunication continues to be a drag on the job market for IT Pros as 33,800 jobs were lost in the last 12 months.
The impact of the "trade war" does not seem to be great at this time. However the decline in the stock market and the slowing of China's economy is causing some concern.
It is very clear that telecommunication professionals are in a shrinking job market -- there is no end in sight. For the first time in several quarters the Telecom job market was flat , with no jobs lost. However Verizon has started another reduction in force program as it moves into the next generation of automation.
Prior Months IT Job Market Changes Adjustments.
Adjustments to the number of IT jobs created were made by the BLS for the prior two months. A total of 13,500 job were subtracted from the BLS data previously reported for the prior two months. That is a major adjustment. In addition, there is a trend towards the largest adjustment we have seen in the 20 plus years that we have been tracking the IT Job maket.
Labor Force Participation
The work force participation percentage of all employees (male and female) is 63.2%. There are 95,599,000 people who are not in the labor force. However the absolute number of individuals not is the labor force now is 243,000 lower than last month.
The Labor Force Participation percentage has stabilized at one of it lowest points in the last 50 years. The short term trend line is positive.
Labor Participation Rate in the low 60's but rising
95.599 million people in the U.S. are not working - see reasons why not working
There are rumblings that a recession is just beyond the horizon are getting louder. Reasons why people are not in the labor force are varied.
US National Employment
The US National unemployment rate has fallen from its peak levels in 2012 to the current levels. However this needs to be tempered with the fact that the labor market participation rate remains at the lowest it has been in over 30 years.
Since the change of administrations, job growth seems to be on an upward trend. IT job growth has been positive 12 out of 12 months.
The National unemployment data provides a measure of the health of the over-all labor market. A more granular metric is one that considers local condition - i.e. state and local unemployment.
In February 2019 there were 2 states with an unemployment rate of 5.4% or above. That is the same as it was last month.
States with the Lowest Unemployment -- Full Employment States
Several states have very low unemployment rates. In January there were 36 states that we considered high unemployment states.
Offshore outsourcing companies continued to make up the majority of the top H-1B visa applications according to new government data. These offshore firms have been adding employees by the thousands as their revenues increase. Infosys (India based) led the list in 2014 with 23,759 visa applications with a median salary for those positions $72,254, edging out Tata (India based) which had 14,098 visa requests-with a median salary for those positions $66,600.
In 2018 Infosys still lead the pack, but with fewer employees than in 2014. The median salary they paid was $82,993 -- almost $10,000 more than in 2014.
Over $15 billion dollars were paid to H-1B visa holders in 2018 with a median salary of $91,604.04
The median salay paid to the 2018 visa holders as lower than the median salary paid to all US IT professionsal. That was $93,077.
US Federal Government Compensation Cap
US Federal Regulations set limits on how much companies can get reimbursed for the salaries they compensate their management. Companies can pay more, but cannot charge the government for the amounts paid above the limit. For many years, the caps only applied to the top 5 executives, but the rule changed in December 2011, and now the cap applies to all employees, not just the top 5 executives.
If you provide ten or more job title data points you will qualify to get a free copy of the full study. If you have any questions on the survey send us an e-mail at Janco Associates, Inc.