IT Job Market and US National Employment Data
IT job market prospects are tied to the US national employment data -- Janco predicts that 84,000 net new IT jobs will be created in 2019
IT Job Market and US National Employment Data - On a monthly basis - typically on the first Friday of the month - Janco publishes an analysis of the IT Job Market utilizing the BLS labor data and its proprietary data. See the latest press clipping go to Janco's Press Clippings and eJobDescription.com.
The salary survey is updated twice a year; once in January and then again in July. Janco and eJobDescription.com not only look at base salaries, they also report on total compensation and hiring trends for IT professionals.
You can get a free copy of the full survey if you provide 10 valid data points and use a corporate e-mail address. Free e-mail accounts like gmail or yahoo do not qualify as we have no way to verify the accuracy of the data provided.
IT Job Market growth was greater in 2018 by 21,000 net new jobs than added in 2017
The number of IT Jobs added in 2016 was 71,900 and 112,500 in 2015 new jobs. 2017 was a disappointment with a little under 60K net new IT Jobs created. In 2018 79,800 jobs were added in the year and we forecast that another 84,000 will be added in 2019.
With the existing business climate in the U.S., we forecast that as total of approximately 84,000 new IT jobs will be created in calendar year 2019.
The rate of hiring is still high for IT Pros. However, the change in that rate of increase shows that many IT organizations are absorbing the individuals hired and are not increasing the the number of new hires. They are filling existing positions.
When Final December YTD 2017 is compared with December YTD 2016 there were 13,200 fewer new IT jobs created in 2017 than 2016. Much of that is due to an adjustment in the Telecommunications job market.
In 2018 21,000 more new jobs were created than the same time in 2017.
See IT Job Families
Hiring Plans for IT Professionals
Many CIOs are beginning to be concerned about the economy. With the recent moves in the Stock Market and the slowing of China's economy there is a possibility that hiring may slow for IT professionals. The hiring picture is much more optimistic for IT Pros.
Based on Janco's interviews and survey data the following positions are in high demand.
Approximately 85,000 undergraduate degrees are issued for majors in Information Technology. Read on about Career Opportunities
U.S. Department of Labor National Employment Report
IT job market size increased in October with 10,300 new jobs and 78,600 jobs added in the last 12 months.
The BLS reclassified jobs that are in the Telecommunication to Computer Systems Design and related services which is why the individual classifications show a large change last year.
With the massive fires in the west and the recent hurricane, in our professional opinion we believe that in those markets, growth in the number of new IT jobs will be slower. There are some signs that the recovery is slowing
In interviews with both CIOs and HR professionals since the election, Janco has found CIOs to be more optimistic about the probability of increased IT spending and hiring. The data on the number of IT jobs created in the prior two months was increased by the BLS.
CIOs say short term hiring and long term prospects are improving
Job growth in the IT job market growth increased again in November.
The three month moving average for IT job market growth trend for IT Professionals is up dramatically. That metric is the change rate in increase and/or decrease in the total number of new hires. What it means is that CIO and HR recruiters are continuing to hire at a rate that is higher than in prior months. When that metric falls below zero then hiring demand will fall back to previous levels.
Janco's CIO Hiring Plan Forecast, for the time being, remain high. Many IT organizations still have open requisitions for IT pros that they are not able to fill because of the lack of good candidates. The number of positions filled at the staff level in prior months was high and IT departments are focusing in on absorbing new IT pros that were hired and are adding as many new positions in the short term.
IT Job Market Employment Trends
The IT job market grew by 2,400 jobs last month. Over the past 12 months 78,200 IT jobs were created according to the latest BLS data. Telecommunication continues to be a drag on the job market for IT Pros as 25,500 jobs were lost in the last 12 months.
The impact of the "trade war" does not seem to be great at this time. However the decline in the stock market and the slowing of China's economy is casuing some concern.
It is very clear that telecommunication professionals are in a shrinking job market -- there is no end in sight. For the first time in several quarters the Telecom job market was flat , with no jobs lost. However Verizon has started another reduction in force program.
Prior Months IT Job Market Changes Adjustments.
Adjustments to the number of IT jobs created were made by the BLS for the prior two months. A total of 6,700 job were added to the BLS data previously reported for the prior two months.
Labor Force Participation
The work force participation percentage of all employees (male and female) is 63.1%. There still are 96,378,000 people who are not in the labor force.
The Labor Force Participation percentage has stabilized at one of it lowest points in the last 50 years. The trend line is positive.
Labor Participation Rate in the low 60's
96.378 million people in the U.S. are not working - see reasons why not working
There are rumblings that a recession is just beyond the horizon are getting louder. Reasons why people are not in the labor force are varied.
US National Employment
The US National unemployment rate has fallen from its peak levels in 2012 to the current levels. However this needs to be tempered with the fact that the labor market participation rate remains at the lowest it has been in over 30 years.
Since the change of administrations, job growth seems to be on an upward trend. IT job growth has been positive 12 out of 12 months.
The National unemployment data provides a measure of the health of the over-all labor market. A more granular metric is one that considers local condition - i.e. state and local unemployment.
In December 2018 there were 2 states with an unemployment rate of over 5.5%. That is the same as it was last month.
States with the Lowest Unemployment -- Full Employment States
Several states have very low unemployment rates. In October there were 30 states that we considered high unemployment states.
US Federal Government Compensation Cap
US Federal Regulations set limits on how much companies can get reimbursed for the salaries they compensate their management. Companies can pay more, but cannot charge the government for the amounts paid above the limit. For many years, the caps only applied to the top 5 executives, but the rule changed in December 2011, and now the cap applies to all employees, not just the top 5 executives.
Offshore outsourcing companies continued to make up the majority of the top H-1B visa applications according to new government data. These offshore firms have been adding employees by the thousands as their revenues increase. Infosys (India based) led the list in 2014 with 23,759 visa applications with a median salary for those positions $72,254, edging out Tata (India based) which had 14,098 visa requests-with a median salary for those positions $66,600.
Both of those salaries were well below the median salary ($81,583 in 2014) for IT potions. The overall median salary for the top 30 enterprises that filed for H-1B visas was $77,027.
If you provide ten or more job title data points you will qualify to get a free copy of the full study. If you have any questions on the survey send us an e-mail at Janco Associates, Inc.