IT Job Market and US National Employment Data

IT job market prospects are tied to the US national employment data

IT Job Market and US National Employment Data - On a monthly basis - typically on the first Friday of the month - Janco publishes an analysis of the IT Job Market utilizing the BLS labor data and it proprietary data. See the latest press clipping go to Janco's Press Clippings and eJobDescription.com.

The salary survey is updated twice a year; once in January and then again in July. Janco and eJobDescription.com not only look at base salaries, they also report on total compensation.

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You can get a free copy of the full survey if you provide 10 valid data points and use a corporate e-mail address. Free e-mail accounts like gmail or yahoo do not qualify as we have no way to verify the accuracy of the data provided.

Janco predicts that IT Job Market will grow approximately by 73,600 jobs in 2016

The number of IT Jobs added in 2015 was 112,500 which was the less than 2014's 129,400 new jobs.  That level of growth is barely enough to cover the graduates from US universities and trade schools.   Based on our analysis of the current IT job market growth data, we forecast 73,600 IT jobs will be created in the current calendar year.  

That is based on our forecast of 4,500 new IT jobs to be added in the remainder of the year in addition to the 69,100 new IT jobs created thus far in 2016.

The end result will be that few IT were created in 2016 than in any year since 2012..

Forecast of Annual IT Job Market Growth

The trend in the creation of new IT jobs Janco's continues to point downwards.  Currently there is 0.07% growth rate (moving average) in the number of IT jobs created. This is a slight move down from the 0.33% growth rate moving average from last month.

Trend of IT job market growthIT job market growth by class of jobs

When compared with 2015 there were 43,700 fewer new IT jobs created YTD as of November.  

Hiring Plans for IT Professionals

In the first quarter of 2016 many CIOs had pulled in the reigns on filling new positions.   However with the recent election results many CIOs have been directed to plan for some growth and hiring. They have stopped cutting back on contractors and are processes requestioned for new hires.   Few NEW IT executive level positions are looking to be filled currently but the outlook for an improved job market six months out for all levels of IT professionals..

Future IT Hiring Plans

Based on Janco's interviews and survey data the following positions are in high demand.

Approximately 85,000 undergraduate degrees are issued for majors in Information Technology. Read on...

U.S. Department of Labor National Employment Report


IT job market size increased in October and grew by 500 new jobs and 68.800 jobs added in the last 12 months -- is lower than reported for the same 12 months in the prior year.

The BLS reclassified jobs that are in the Telecommunication to Computer Systems Design and related services which is why the individual classifications show a large change in November of last year.   However based on our analysis they balance each other out.

When compared with the prior year there were 43,700 fewer jobs created YTD as of November of this year versus last year.   In addition, in interviews with both CIOs and HR professionals since the election, Janco has found CIOs to be more optomistic about the probability of increased IT spending and hiring..

CIOs say short term hiring and long term prospects are improving

Job growth in the IT job market has been trending down for the last several months

IT Job Market Gains

The three month moving average for IT job market growth trend for IT Professionals does not show improvment. However, in interviews after the election many CIOs and CFOs are optomistic that the overall business climate will improve.


Janco's CIO Hiring Plan Forecast continues to be mixed. Many IT organizations have open requisitions for IT pros that they are not able to fill  because of the lack of good candidates.

IT Hiring Trend

Overall the number of new jobs created fell to the lowest levels since the last recession. The Labor Department has reported the economy added the fewest jobs created in the last several months. .

Jobs Added

IT Job Market Employment Trends

The IT job market grew last month by500 jobs last  month. Over the past 12 months 68,800 IT jobs were created according to the latest BLS data. Telecommunication continues to be a drag on the job market for IT Pros.

IT job market improves - hiring up

IT job market improves - hiring up

Prior Months IT Job Market Changes Adjustments.

Major adjustments to the number of IT jobs created were made by the BLS for the prior two months.  

IT job market improves - hiring up

Labor Force Participation

The work force participation percentage of all employees (male and female) is 62.7% - one of the lowest levers (not good) in 38 years. There still are just 95,089,000 (unadjusted) people who are not in the labor force.  That is two months in row were more people have left the labor market.

Work Force Participation

There are rumblings that a recession is just beyond the horizon are getting louder. Reasons why people are not in the labor force are varied.

 

US National Employment

The US National unemployment rate has fallen from its peak levels in 2012 to the current levels.   However this needs to be tempered with the fact that the labor market participation rate remains at the lowest it has been in over 30 years.

The number of total IT jobs initially reported as added in November was 500.  However there still a downward basis in the size of increase in the IT job market. The total labor market in has show a growth for four months in a row.

 

State Unemployment

The National unemployment data provides a measure of the health of the over-all labor market.   A more granular metric is one that considers local condition - i.e. state and local unemployment.  

High unemployment states June and July 2016

In October 2016 there were 4 states with an unemployment rate of over 6% versus 8 in September 2016 with over 6% Unemployment.

High unemployment states July 2016

States with the Lowest Unemployment -- Full Employment States

Several states have very low unemployment rates.   In July there were 13 states that we considered high unemployment states in October that picture has changed and now there are only 11 full employment states.

Full employment states July 2016

Of the 11 full employment in September, none had higher employment rates that the same month last year.

US Federal Government Compensation Cap

US Federal Regulations set limits on how much companies can get reimbursed for the salaries they compensate their management. Companies can pay more, but cannot charge the government for the amounts paid above the limit. For many years, the caps only applied to the top 5 executives, but the rule changed in December 2011, and now the cap applies to all employees, not just the top 5 executives.

H-1B Visas

Offshore outsourcing companies continued to make up the majority of the top H-1B visa applications according to new government data. These offshore firms have been adding employees by the thousands as their revenues increase. Infosys (India based) led the list in 2014 with 23,759  visa applications with a median salary for those positions $72,254, edging out Tata (India based) which had 14,098 visa requests-with a median salary for those positions $66,600.  

Both of those salaries were well below the median salary ($81,583 in 2014) for IT potions.  The overall median salary for the top 30 enterprises that filed for H-1B visas was $77,027.

H-1B Visas

 


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If you provide ten or more job title data points you will qualify to get a free copy of the full study.  If you have any questions on the survey send us an e-mail at Janco Associates, Inc.