IT Job Market and US National Employment Data

IT job market prospects are tied to the US national employment data

IT Job Market and US National Employment Data - On a monthly basis - typically on the first Friday of the month - Janco publishes an analysis of the IT Job Market utilizing the BLS labor data and it proprietary data. See the latest press clipping go to Janco's Press Clippings and eJobDescription.com.

The salary survey is updated twice a year; once in January and then again in July. Janco and eJobDescription.com not only look at base salaries, they also report on total compensation.

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You can get a free copy of the full survey if you provide 10 valid data points and use a corporate e-mail address. Free e-mail accounts like gmail or yahoo do not qualify as we have no way to verify the accuracy of the data provided.

Janco predicts that IT Job Market will grow approximately by 78,200 jobs in 2016

The number of IT Jobs added in 2015 was 112,500 which was the less than 2014's 129,400 new jobs.  That level of growth is barely enough to cover the graduates from US universities and trade schools.   Based on our analysis of the current IT job market growth data, we forecast 78,200 IT jobs will be created in the current calendar year.   That is based on our forecast of 25,000 new IT jobs to be added in the remainder of the year in addition to the 53,200 new IT jobs created thus far in 2016.

Forecast of Annual IT Job Market Growth

The trend in the creation of new IT jobs Janco's continues to point downwards.  Currently there is 1.28% growth rate (moving average) in the number of IT jobs created. This is a significant rebound from the prior months moving average which was 0.44% (a +0.84% favorable move).

Trend of IT job market growthIT job market growth by class of jobs

When compared with 2015 there were 33,200 fewer new IT jobs created YTD as of July.  

Hiring Plans for IT Professionals

In the first quarter of 2016 many CIOs have pulled in the reigns on filling new positions.   They have started to cut back on contractors and add a limited number of new workers.   Many middle level supervisors and manager positions have been put on hold.   Few if any NEW IT executive level positions are looking to be filled.

Future IT Hiring Plans

Based on Janco's interviews and survey data the following positions are in high demand.

Approximately 85,000 undergraduate degees are issued for majors in Information Technology. Read on...

U.S. Department of Labor National Employment Report


IT job market improved signifiacantly in July and grew by 7,100 new jobs and 85,300 jobs added in the last 12 months -- but it still is lower than reported for the same 12 months in the prior year.

The BLS reclassified jobs that are in the Telecommunication to Computer Systems Design and related services which is why the individual classifications show a large change in November of last year.   However based on our analysis they balance each other out.

When compared with the prior year there were 33,200 fewer jobs created YTD as of July of this year versus last year.   In addition, in interviews with both CIOs and HR professionals, Janco has found CIOs to be pessimistic about the probability of increased IT spending and hiring..

There seems to be a much more volitatle movement of the number of jobs created as reported by the BLS.  We shall continue to monitor this trend.

CIOs say short term hiring and long term prospects are mixed at best

Job growth in the IT job market has been trending down for the last several months

IT Job Market Gains

The three month moving average for IT job market growth trend for IT Professionals shows signs of improvement.


Janco's CIO Hiring Plan Forecast continues to be mixed. Many IT organizations have open requisitions for IT pros that they are not able to fill  because of the lack of good candidates.

IT Hiring Trend

Overall the number of new jobs created fell to the lowest levels since the last recession. The Labor Department has reported the economy added the fewest jobs created in the last serveral months. .

Jobs Added

IT Job Market Employment Trends

The IT job market grew last month by 34,200 jobs last  month. This more than negates the loss of 19,400 reported for May (adjusted from an orginally reported loss of 27,700 last month). Over the past 12 months 97,200 IT jobs were created according to the lastest BLS data.

IT job market improves - hiring up

IT job market improves - hiring up

Prior Months IT Job Market Changes Adjustments.

Major adjustments to the number of IT jobs created were made by the BLS for the prior two months.  

IT job market improves - hiring up

Labor Force Participation

The work force participation percentage of all employees (male and female) is 62.8% - still one of the lowest levers in 38 years. There still are just 94,333,000 people who are not in the labor force.  

Work Force Participation

There are rumblings that a recession is just beyond the horizon are getting louder.

 

US National Employment

The US National unemployment rate has fallen from its peak levels in 2012 to the current levels.   However this needs to be tempered with the fact that the labor market participation rate remains at the lowest it has been in over 30 years.

The number of total jobs initially reported as added in June was 34,200.  That is a major reversal from the prior month.   However there still a downward basis in the size of increase in the IT job market.

 

State Unemployment

The National unemployment data provides a measure of the health of the over-all labor market.   A more granular metric is one that considers local condition - i.e. state and local unemployment.  

High unemployment states June and July 2016

In July 2016 there were 6 states with an unemployment rate of over 6% versus 8 in June 2016 with over 6% Unemployment. Of the high unemployment states, Nevada has been in a high unemployment state for the past 8 years..

High unemployment states July 2016

States with the Lowest Unemployment -- Full Employment States

Several states have very low unemployment rates.   In June there were 15 states that we considered high unemployment states. Adjustments were made to the number so that last month there were 13.

Full employment states July 2016

Of the 13 full employment nine states had higher unemployment rates in July than in June: Massachusetts, Arkansas, Minnesota, Utah, Idaho, Hawaii, Nebraska, and South Dakota.  

US Federal Government Compensation Cap

US Federal Regulations set limits on how much companies can get reimbursed for the salaries they compensate their management. Companies can pay more, but cannot charge the government for the amounts paid above the limit. For many years, the caps only applied to the top 5 executives, but the rule changed in December 2011, and now the cap applies to all employees, not just the top 5 executives.

H-1B Visas

Offshore outsourcing companies continued to make up the majority of the top H-1B visa applications according to new government data. These offshore firms have been adding employees by the thousands as their revenues increase. Infosys (India based) led the list in 2014 with 23,759  visa applications with a median salary for those positions $72,254, edging out Tata (India based) which had 14,098 visa requests-with a median salary for those positions $66,600.  

Both of those salaries were well below the median salary ($81,583 in 2014) for IT potions.  The overall median salary for the top 30 enterprises that filed for H-1B visas was $77,027.

H-1B Visas

 


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If you provide ten or more job title data points you will qualify to get a free copy of the full study.  If you have any questions on the survey send us an e-mail at Janco Associates, Inc.